Putin's war in Ukraine has thrown the whole of Europe into a deep energy supply crisis this year. The flow of gas from Russia, which in 2021 accounted for 40 per cent of the EU countries' gas consumption has stopped. All European countries have struggled to find alternative supplies. The shock waves have rolled through the electricity market, and prices have increased by as much as 10 times compared to the time before the Covid19 pandemic. The governments of the EU countries have made emergency plans for the coming winter, and at EU level a series of crisis meetings have been held to find a common response.  

The most important move came on 18 May 2022, when the European Commission presented its REPowerEU level. A goal was set here to reduce the EU countries' gas imports from Russia – it was 2021 billion cubic meters of gas (BCM) in 155 – to a third by next winter. In its plan, the Commission proposes to focus on energy savings, more renewable energy and to increase the import of natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG, liquefied natural gas) from countries other than Russia. 

Until 2030, the Commission will invest up to DKK 300 billion. euro extra in completely freeing the EU countries from dependence on Russian energy, but at the same time it is estimated that around 93,7 billion can be saved each year. euros on the import of oil, gas and coal from Russia, then the investment plan is financed by future savings. You stayed immediately only to fill the European gas reserves up to at least 85 per cent. before 1 November. This goal was reached in October 2022.  

A perfect storm 

Despite the many emergency plans, the EU countries are still threatened by a serious supply crisis, and there is a risk that this winter there may be periods when the electricity grid cannot supply enough electricity to households and industrial companies. It can end in repeated blackout situations. The risk increases if it is a cold and dark winter and the wind does not blow enough, because then there is not enough energy to produce electricity. Already, the electricity market has been plagued by the fact that the hydropower plants have delivered much less electricity this year because it has been the worst drought in Europe for 500 years. And the French nuclear power plants have produced 57 per cent. less electricity, and some of that is due to the fact that several a-power plants have not been able to cool down their reactors, as the water in the rivers has been too hot. It has been a perfect storm, where Russia's war and the climate crisis have become intertwined and created a dramatic situation on the energy market that is perhaps worse than during the energy crises of the 1970s. of the Commission REPowerEU-plan set out that the EU countries must be completely freed from the import of Russian gas by 2027 at the latest, but during the summer of 2022 the course of events overtook them. Gazprom itself closed the supply of gas to a number of EU countries, and this created a heightened situation in, among other things, Germany, where the industry has been very dependent on cheap gas supplies from Russia.  

Savings campaigns 

Citizens and companies must save more on energy, is one of the key points in the REPower-EU plan. The energy ministers of the EU countries have since agreed to save 15 per cent. of gas consumption during 2022. One has also been made appointment to lower electricity consumption by 5 per cent. during the hours of the day when the network is exposed to the greatest peak load. In addition, the member states must seek to reduce their energy consumption by 10 per cent on a voluntary basis. until March 2023. REPowerEU- plan contained a long wish list from the Commission, which called on the European Parliament and the Council to come up with several proposals on how to ensure further energy savings. A majority in the EU's Council of Ministers wants to lift the previous energy efficiency target, so that you save approximately 13 per cent. of energy during the 2020s, while a majority in the European Parliament wants to save 14,5 per cent. How high you get depends on the trilogue negotiations between the Council, the Parliament and the Commission. At the same time, the Commission proposes that in the next five years around 10 million will be installed. energy-efficient heat pumps in Europeans' homes, so that natural gas-fired homes can be connected to the electricity grid more quickly. For each time 10 million is set up. heat pumps, you can save around 12 BCM of natural gas in the residential sector. The member states have presented different plans for how they will ensure a faster roll-out of both heat pumps and district heating. 

With solar and wind, the EU can cut more CO2 

Another central element in the Commission's plan is that much more must be invested in solar and wind energy. The EU's target for renewable energy will be raised from 40 to 45 per cent. towards 2030, and the European Parliament supports this objective. The vice-president of the Commission, Frans Timmermans, has said that we in the EU must expand renewable energy at lightning speed and raise the targets in the EU's Green Deal. The Commission puts in its REPowerEU- plan up to DKK 86 billion to be spent euros in 2022-2030 on securing much more solar and wind energy in Europe. 

The Commission wants up to 510 GW of wind energy compared to the current 190 GW. Roughly speaking, it will require that every six months from now until 1 January 2030, 13 GW of wind turbines must be installed on land and at sea.  

At the same time, they will increase the amount of solar energy from 195 GW today to 320 GW in 2025, and then increase it to 592 GW in 2030. This corresponds to a tripling of solar energy in this decade. Going forward, the Commission also wants far more solar installations on Europe's roofs. Here it is proposed that all new public and commercial buildings over 250 square meters must be built with solar cells on the roof by the end of 2026 at the latest. One year later, the requirement must apply to all existing municipal and commercial buildings of that size, and by 31 December 2027 all new buildings must be built with solar cells.  

If it succeeds in raising the share of renewable energy and ensuring more energy savings as proposed by the Commission, the EU's previous target of reducing CO2 emissions by 55 per cent can be achieved. towards 2030, be lifted. Climate Action Tracker estimates that CO2 emissions will at least be reduced by approx 57-58 per cent. But it doesn't have to be that way. Germany, Poland and several other countries are burning more coal in their power plants, and the consumption of coal has increased by 12 per cent. during 2022. At the same time, more people have started burning firewood and wood pellets to keep the heat in the houses. This will lead to greater CO2 emissions and more air pollution with dangerous particles. 

The network is vulnerable 

The European transmission network must also be strengthened so that renewable energy can be transferred more easily across borders. Today there are serious capacity problems, and sometimes the Danish wind turbines have to e.g. is put on hold because "traffic jams" occur in the transfer down through Germany. 

The Commission proposes in its REPower EU plan that an extra 39 billion be set aside. euros to strengthen the transmission network and connection lines between EU countries. But the national transmission companies are going to invest many times more. It is estimated that at least DKK 2030 billion will need to be invested in total by 583. euros in upgrading the electricity network. If the electricity grid does not get more capacity, it will be a serious stumbling block for the green transition. This may delay the expansion of renewable energy, and in that case the electricity will still come from fossil fuels during a long transitional period. The faster the network is developed, the faster the expansion of renewable energy can be scaled up. In the future, it can ensure large savings on the import of fossil fuels from Russia and other authoritarian regimes. 

Massive investment in green hydrogen 

The Commission's proposal is also expected to give extra speed to the development of a competitive European industry for green hydrogen via Power-to-X plants, where hydrogen can be produced via electrolysis with renewable energy. It is hoped that in 2030 the EU will be able to produce 10 million tonnes of hydrogen from renewable energy sources. On top of that, another 10 million will be imported. tons of hydrogen or ammonia each year. It is a way of storing solar and wind energy, which are otherwise variable energy sources. At the same time, the new Power-to-X factories can produce e-fuels for Europe's cargo ships and long-haul aircraft, or you can make e-ammonia, so that we can free ourselves more from the artificial fertilizers produced with fossil fuels.  

There is a large energy loss in the conversion from electricity to hydrogen, and it will require around 110 GW of additional offshore wind to produce 10 million ton of electrolytic hydrogen. That is 46 per cent. more than the amount of offshore wind that the heads of government from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium promised at their big North Sea summit to scale up offshore wind.  

From a purely financial point of view, it will also be a costly affair to achieve the Commission's goal of a rapid scale-up of hydrogen production. The Commission estimates that it requires investments in the order of DKK 335-471 billion. euros in order to have the capacity to manufacture 10 million tonnes of green hydrogen – and approximately two-thirds of this money will go towards expanding the renewable energy that will supply the facilities.