How the EU will cut at least 95 percent of greenhouse gases by 2040 and reach net zero by 2045

30 May 2025

The battle for the EU's climate targets for 2040 is entering its decisive phase. The European Commission was supposed to have already presented its proposal for the reduction target here in the first quarter of 2025, but the proposal is expected to be published here in June.

The Danish government has previously stated that it would like to see a common EU target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90 percent. However, there have been reports that the EU's climate commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, is considering softening the target, setting it slightly lower than 90 percent and making it more flexible, as he fears a political backlash.

While the EU's 2030 target has followed a linear reduction path, the Commission is reportedly also considering giving member states the option to deviate from this, to buy climate credits and to focus more on, for example, later absorption in forests or a larger share of CO2 capture. But how high should the reduction target be, and how should it be approached?

In this analysis, the Council for the Green Transition has made a comprehensive proposal to the European Commission that can ensure that the EU27 can at least reduce its emissions by 95-96 percent in 2040. This will also strengthen the energy economic robustness and security of the EU countries, because the EU can more quickly free itself from the annual import of fossil fuels for 350 billion euros. Read more in depth in the note and see our main recommendations below:

MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS:

The EU27 should adopt an ambitious climate target and reduce its emissions by at least 95 percent by 2040, so as to become a climate-positive and fossil-free society with net-zero emissions by 2045 at the latest.

There should be a much faster and more focused expansion of solar and wind energy, batteries, thermal storage and geothermal energy. By 2040, the amount of onshore and offshore wind must increase eightfold, and solar energy must increase 22 times to make the entire EU's energy consumption fossil-free. This will allow the EU to completely free itself from the annual import of fossil fuels worth 350 billion euros.
More investment should be made in energy efficiency improvements. These improvements could ensure a total phase-out of fossil gas from Russia as early as 2030, and by 2040, major energy savings would be ensured that could phase out all fossil gas in the EU27.

A faster electrification of road transport, industry and the heating sector is a must-win battle. At least 90 percent of the particularly energy-intensive industries are electrified, thereby avoiding large energy losses in combustion technologies.

The production of e-fuels for maritime and aviation, based on green hydrogen, is being scaled up more quickly in regional industrial clusters to ensure the decarbonization of long-haul maritime and aviation. Thanks to developments in battery technology, short and medium-haul maritime and aviation may be electrified towards 2040, which is more cost-effective.

The RGO roadmap is an ambitious scenario that can be realised if the necessary political will can be mobilised in the EU. This roadmap also shows that much less CO2 capture and more afforestation will be needed than previously assumed. This roadmap is close to the so-called Life scenario, which, according to the Commission's own impact assessment report, is cost-effective and can deliver greater CO2 reductions than the other scenarios such as business as usual or a technology-heavy scenario where CO2 capture plays a very large role.