Current targets for nitrogen emission reductions are set too low to save the ocean. To ensure good ocean status, policymakers must increase the target for nitrogen reductions, implement emergency measures and use the tools required for a good ocean status. New report provides a number of recommendations for policymakers

The planned nitrogen reductions are too small and too uncertain for Danes to start looking forward to a clear and vibrant sea after decades of oxygen depletion and a dying marine environment. Even with the tripartite agreement, the Danish aquatic environment efforts only give a 50 percent chance of the sea reaching good ecological status, and it could take decades before that happens, highlights a new report from the Green Transition Council.

“The tripartite agreement is a big step forward, but it should be openly acknowledged that it does not fully safeguard the marine environment. This is partly because the nitrogen targets the government is operating with are out of step with reality. One of the main objectives of the tripartite agreement was to tackle agricultural nitrogen emissions and revive the struggling sea. This is not being achieved with the efforts that have been made,” says Niklas Jørgensen, senior advisor for food and bioresources at the Green Transition Denmark.

Nitrogen emissions come mainly from agriculture, which accounts for 89 percent of society's emissions to the sea. The reductions are decided based on how much nitrogen a water body can tolerate if good ecological status is to be achieved. The greater the reduction, the greater the certainty of achieving the target.

Even with the right measures, it can still take decades for ecosystems to recover. After extensive nutrient discharges over several decades, large amounts of nutrients have accumulated on the seabed. These stores are released over time and affect the condition. But the more we reduce discharges, the faster these accumulations are depleted.

A higher goal and urgent action are needed

Green Transition Denmark assesses that an effort requirement of at least 20.000 tonnes is necessary to ensure the pace and security of restoring a healthy marine environment. Meanwhile, the tripartite effort requirement is set at 13.780 tonnes. The difference is due, among other things, to the government's calculation of nitrogen emissions being too low, and to the inclusion of a so-called baseline effect, where it is expected that nitrogen emissions will fall by themselves towards 2027. Although the baseline has been included since 2013, the effect has not been reflected in the nitrogen figures. Nitrogen emissions have not fallen since 2010.

"We need to raise the bar if we really want to save the sea. At the same time, our sea is in such poor condition that urgent help is needed. We have not solved the oxygen depletion problems with an agreement text, and the sea cannot wait any longer for nitrogen reductions. Therefore, emergency measures should be implemented with a reduced nitrogen standard and cultivation-free buffer zones valid in 2026. These measures can then be stepped up in conjunction with the upcoming targeted regulation from 2027, and as the area removal is realized.",” says Niklas Sjøbeck Jørgensen.

Politicians should use more tools

Green Transition Denmark presents a toolbox with a number of initiatives that can supplement the nitrogen hammer, as the new targeted regulation is often called, and which politicians should take into consideration when determining future regulation of nutrients.

The toolbox includes a recommendation to raise the target for conversion of agricultural land to forest and nature to at least 600.000 hectares. In addition, politicians should consider, among other things, that drained low-lying soils should not receive support, options for taxes on nitrogen and phosphorus, stricter phosphorus ceilings, and strengthening ecology and agro-ecological initiatives.

"Politicians should open the toolbox as a supplement to the tripartite agreement, so that there is greater certainty and faster pace on the road to a healthy ocean. We must reduce nutrient loading now, and we must do so to a fair extent, so that Denmark will with great certainty and within the foreseeable future once again have a clean ocean with well-functioning ecosystems," says Niklas Sjøbeck Jørgensen, senior advisor for food and bioresources at the Green Transition Denmark.