No one can see into the future. Yet research shows it to us increasingly clearly. Globally, we are moving towards temperature increases that exceed the 1,5 degrees that the world's countries set as a goal in Paris. And here at home, the Climate Council's latest assessment indicates that it is no longer clear that Denmark will reach its 2030 goal. It's like going backwards into the future.

If a future government is to reverse the trend and ensure that Denmark reaches its statutory reduction target of 70 percent by 2030, it will require more than adjustments to current policy.

It requires a plan that reduces uncertainties and delivers rapid, measurable reductions. And that requires us to spot the methane.

Methane, the overlooked challenge

Because methane is not a marginal issue. It is one of the most overlooked challenges in Danish climate policy – ​​and at the same time the climate's overlooked emergency brake.

Methane is a potent but short-lived greenhouse gas. When one ton of methane is released into the atmosphere, it warms the climate more than 80 times as much as one ton of CO₂ over a 20-year period. This means that even relatively limited emissions can have a large effect on the warming we experience in the coming decades. But also that reductions can have rapid climate effects.

At the same time, methane accounts for a much larger share of Denmark's climate footprint than we usually talk about. Measured over a 20-year perspective, methane currently accounts for around two-thirds of total Danish emissions. This means that uncertainties in methane emissions can have a decisive impact on whether we achieve our climate goals.

A large and rapid reduction potential

When the Climate Council assesses that the 2030 target is not secured, this is due, among other things, to significant uncertainties in key instruments and projections – including methane emissions from biogas production, manure management, livestock farming and the energy sector. This implies a real risk that actual emissions are higher or decrease more slowly than expected.

Every day, methane leaks into the atmosphere from sources that can be largely reduced with existing technology. From leaking biogas plants and manure handling across the country. From oil and gas production in the North Sea and fossil fuel infrastructure. And the large emissions from livestock farming, which require structural changes.

At the same time, the potential cannot be overlooked: Methane is a powerful and short-lived greenhouse gas, so action here and now can lead to rapid and effective reductions.

When our climate goals are within the next few decades, it is not useful to only focus on what will happen in 100 years, which is the way emissions are normally calculated.

We need to focus on what has the biggest impact in the short term. But we still need to see the full picture of the extent of methane emissions, and we lack a comprehensive plan that ensures effective reductions.

If the climate goals are to be achieved with a high degree of certainty, it therefore requires fewer uncertainties and more reductions that can deliver impact in this decade.

Methane reductions are among the most effective measures to achieve rapid and measurable climate impacts, and many are cost-effective. However, several of these emissions remain associated with significant uncertainty and are not fully covered by current regulation.

A lifeline without a plan

We need to close the methane gaps in climate policy. This requires a national effort that strengthens measurement and monitoring, and that targets measures against the largest and most uncertain emission sources, especially the biogas value chain, manure management and livestock farming.

At the same time, we must ensure that methane does not leak out of the energy system, and accelerate the phasing out of fossil gas through electrification.

Denmark is already well advanced in implementing EU regulation for methane in the energy sector, but a comprehensive plan is lacking that ensures rapid reductions where the potential is greatest.

The benefits extend beyond the climate. Reducing methane reduces gas waste, which can strengthen both energy security and competitiveness. At the same time, lower methane emissions contribute to less air pollution, fewer health problems and fewer crop losses.

Methane reductions could thus become the lifeline of climate policy. But this requires that we make methane visible in climate policy and utilize one of the most effective tools to reduce warming in the short term.

This requires, first and foremost, that Denmark adopts a comprehensive national methane reduction plan in line with our international obligations and translates it into concrete reductions so that we can bring Denmark closer to the 2030 target.

This debate post was published in klimamonitor on April 10, 2026 and was written by Britt Dam.

Read the Green Transition Denmark's recommendations here: Close the methane holes in climate policy