The flame that can stay alive in the 1,5-degree target is a focus on the potent but short-lived greenhouse gas methane. Reductions in methane have a significantly faster effect on global warming than reductions in CO₂- emissions, write today's debaters.

Right now, world leaders are again at the COP meeting, this time in Baku, to take stock of the world's greenhouse gas emissions and discuss new measures to address the current climate crisis.

The latest report from the UN Environment Program forms an unpleasant backdrop for the meeting. It shows that there is a risk that within a few years we may wave goodbye to the chance of keeping the global temperature increase within the 1,5 degree target. Rapid and effective reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are more important than ever. And this is where methane enters the picture.

Methane is a short-lived but highly potent greenhouse gas that accounts for about a third of global warming. A ton of methane warms the planet approximately 30 times more than a ton of CO₂ over 100 years, but as many as 80 times more over 20 years.

The reason for this difference is methane's short lifetime in the atmosphere of 12 to 15 years. We can therefore achieve climate gains very quickly by reducing our methane emissions, which primarily originate from agriculture, and then the waste and energy sectors. Methane reductions are therefore the most effective strategy for keeping the goal of limiting warming to 1,5 degrees alive.

Denmark should be a pioneering country

At COP26 in Glasgow, the EU and the US focused on methane in their launch of the Global Methane Pledge (GMP). GMP is a promise to reduce global methane emissions by 30 percent in 2030 compared to 2020, which 158 countries, including Denmark, have signed. However, the current projections show that globally we are very far from living up to that promise.

Denmark can and should be a leading country and show that it is possible to reduce methane emissions significantly. We have already taken steps in the right direction, including better handling of livestock manure, for example via the requirement for frequent disposal of manure, increased biogasification and new regulation of methane leaks from biogas plants.

Projections show, however, that with the current political measures we are far from the target. According to an estimate made by the Green Transition Denmark, with the current political measures, Denmark looks set to reduce methane emissions by 10 to 15 percent in 2030 compared to 2020. Much more action is therefore needed if we are to fulfill the promise of 30 percent reduction in 2030.

Animal agricultural production is the biggest emitter of methane

In 2023, agriculture accounted for as much as 80 percent of Danish methane emissions. The emissions come from animal production, namely from the digestive processes of livestock and from livestock manure. We therefore cannot ignore the fact that measures in the agricultural sector are crucial to reducing methane emissions enough for us to live up to the Paris Agreement and the global methane pledge.

An obvious means of action is a climate tax on agriculture, which leads to more plant production and fewer production animals – and thus less methane. The green tripartite has unfortunately chosen to arrange the tax so that you hold the hand of a large animal production far into the future, by, among other things, prioritizing technologies such as pyrolysis and feed additives over a real transformation of our food system.

A structural restructuring of the Danish agriculture and food system is essential to live up to the Paris Agreement and the global methane promise. Green Transition Denmark together with a number of other green organizations have shown, that the total greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture can be reduced by as much as 78 percent, via, among other things, a reduction in the number of livestock and thus methane emissions.

That transformation will be to show the way forward for the other 158 signatories of the methane pledge.

Methane reductions are the fast track to significant effects on global warming

If we are to keep the global temperature rise below 1,5 degrees, greenhouse gas reductions over the next 20 to 30 years are essential.

Therefore, methane reductions are the fastest way to fulfill both the Paris Agreement and the global methane pledge. This means that we have not reached the goal yet, even with the introduction of the Tripartite climate tax for agriculture.

On the contrary, we must have a sharper focus on ensuring conversion from animal to plant-based food production. This will limit methane emissions and thus also significantly limit Denmark's contribution to global warming.

This debate entry was written by Niklas Sjøbeck Jørgensen, senioradviser in the Green Transition Denmark, and Lærke Kjærbye-Thygesen, junior consultant in the Green Transition Denmark and has been brought into Climate Monitor on 21 November 2024