The world's societies are still deeply dependent on fossil energy. As much as 80 per cent of our total energy consumption still comes from oil, gas and coal, you can read in World Energy Outlook 2024, which the International Energy Agency (IEA) has just published. In fact, more fossil fuels were sold last year than ever before in world history. It is dramatic testimony to the lack of recognition of the seriousness of the climate crisis.

The fossil business as usual still dominates. And we're all screwed if we don't free ourselves soon from the fossil addiction. In fact, the global CO2 budget was only 200 Gigatons at the start of the year, and Denmark's share will run out in the next few years. It is urgent to develop a systematic plan to quickly eliminate and push all fossil fuels out of our total energy consumption.

So has the IEA responded? No, unfortunately no. However, let it be said right away. I am one of those who get excited every time the IEA's Executive Director, Fatih Birol, talks about the fossil age peaking soon. Birol writes in his foreword to the report that "clean electricity is the future". But even so, the IEA still reckons in their net-zero scenario that there is 15 per cent. fossil fuels in the world's total energy consumption in 2050. This is of course better than the governments' current political course, which aims for approximately half of our energy to come from oil, gas and coal in 2050. And the governments' promises can only reduce the proportion to 25 per cent. It's still way, way too much.

It can be done

In the Green Transition Denmark, we have presented in plan for how Denmark can completely free itself from all fossil fuels in 2040, and we will work to ensure that the EU can achieve this in the period 2040-45. The good news is that it can actually be done.

If you dive into the new IEA report, you can find a lot of interesting figures that document that the world is in the middle of a green energy revolution with solar, wind and batteries. The global production capacity for solar cells has increased 40 times in the last 13 years. For wind energy, it is six times. Last year, 550 GW of solar and wind energy was installed - and within the last five years alone, there has been more than a 4-fold increase in the installation of new solar cell systems. In the last year alone, the global manufacture of solar cells has increased by as much as 76 per cent. and 22 per cent were produced. more wind turbines. The demand is enormous, and not least China is blowing away all expectations. In the EU countries, on the other hand, it is still far too slow, i.a. because there are far too many bureaucratic and financial stumbling blocks.

Electricity prices in the EU countries are still 2-3 times higher than in the USA and China, and this damages the competitiveness of European companies. The EU countries import fossil fuels for over DKK 400 billion each year. euros, which is money that could be much better used to invest in a comprehensive restructuring of our energy system, so that in the future we will be 100 per cent self-sufficient in clean energy. A core task for Dan Jørgensen as the EU's new energy commissioner is to put extra turbo on the work of pushing fossil fuels out of the European energy system. We should multiply the amount of solar and wind energy, invest much more in battery storage and other forms of energy storage. And we must increase investments in the electricity grid and the important interconnectors that make it easier and cheaper to send green power across borders in the internal energy market.

It will be cheaper than the IEA thinks

Solar and wind energy are already cheaper than fossil fuels on lifetime costs, and even hybrid solutions – where onshore wind or solar cells are coupled with batteries – are now becoming competitive. And the other good news is that the IEA consistently – and unfortunately still in their new World Energy Outlook – underestimates the coming price drops for solar and wind energy. This means that the green transition will in reality be somewhat cheaper than they imagine.

It is now that the governments of Denmark and other EU countries should work hard to ensure a doubling of renewable energy - and fossil fuels must be phased out faster via a targeted electrification of all sectors, so that the demand for green power is also increased . It will also create an even better business case for RE developers. In relation to the climate, the economy and competitiveness, it should be a no-brainer.

This debate entry was written by Bjarke Møller and was published in Ingeniøren on 18 October 2024.