The discussion on the now adopted CO₂-differentiated and kilometer-based road taxation of trucks in Denmark has been very much centered around electric trucks, as these trucks are the only ones that can get a substantial discount of 75 per cent.

There have been many misunderstandings in the public debate, which has been characterized, among other things, by great ignorance about the technological maturity of electric trucks. A consistent element has been that overall there will only be 4 per cent electric trucks in Denmark in 2030. This figure comes from the Danish Energy Agency's Climate Status and -projection 2023 (KF23), with expectations for new sales and stock of, among other things, electric trucks towards 2035.

In what follows, we have taken a closer look at the figures in KF23 and included other aspects and assumptions that we expect to have a significant influence on the sale of electric trucks in Denmark. At the same time, we will come up with our bid for a more, in our view, realistic projection of the sale of electric trucks in Denmark in the period 2024-2035. We point out that a projection is of course subject to a certain amount of uncertainty both in relation to future new sales and stock.

The expectations for the number of new trucks sold in KF23 are based on the "frozen policy" from 2022.

Daria Rivin
Senior advisor within climate and transport
Green Transition Denmark

Frozen policy means that already adopted regulations are taken into account, including road taxation for lorries and the now existing regulation on CO₂- requirement for trucks of 15 per cent CO₂-reduction in 2025. In addition, the projection is based on the Transport Ministry's Truck Choice Model, in which it is assumed that hauliers choose to buy the type of truck that is overall the cheapest to drive over its lifetime. The Danish Energy Agency's projection for new sales of trucks with different fuels such as diesel, hydrogen, gas and electricity can be seen in Figure 1.

There are many indications that sales of electric trucks will go significantly faster than estimated in FY23. If you look at e.g. on the European truck manufacturers' expectations for sales of zero-emission trucks in the EU in 2030, a somewhat different picture is seen (Sand figure 2).

On average, truck manufacturers expect to sell 50 per cent zero-emission trucks in 2030 in Europe, while the expectations in KF23 for the sale of hydrogen and electric trucks in Denmark are as low as 23 per cent in 2030. This means that the manufacturers' expectations for the average in the EU are more than twice as high, compared to the Climate Projection's expectations in Denmark.

It must be assumed that the truck manufacturers' own expectations for sales of zero-emission trucks must be close to what will actually be sold in the EU in 2030. Not all truck manufacturers intend to develop and sell hydrogen trucks. What they all have in common, however, is that they largely develop and already sell electric trucks today.

New sales of electric trucks were 1,5 per cent in the EU in 2023. Northern European countries such as Denmark, Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands are some of the countries where the conversion to electric trucks is already moving significantly faster than in the rest of Europe. Therefore, it is also expected going forward that northern European countries, including Denmark, are a significantly better market for electric trucks than the average in the EU. The lorry manufacturers therefore expect that they will sell a greater proportion of electric lorries in e.g. Denmark towards 2030. At the same time, the new CO₂-emission requirements for heavy vehicles in 2030, 2035 and 2040 help to lay a solid foundation for how much the truck manufacturers must actually deliver and sell - which in practice will be a significantly increased sale of electric trucks, if the manufacturers do not have to pay quite significant fines

Our projection does not take into account the use of the pool of DKK 300 million. DKK that the government has set aside for the Finance Act (FL24). The pool can potentially ensure the sale of around 600 electric trucks between 2024-2026. Although expectations for future sales are of course subject to considerable uncertainty, we believe that this is a significantly more realistic offer, based on more realistic assumptions.

We base our projection on the same sales figures and stock in the period 2024-2035 as in FY23. Our projection assumes that the economic framework for the acquisition of electric trucks is not distorted too much in relation to our neighboring countries. While KF23 only expects more electric trucks to be sold than diesel trucks in 2035, the Green Transition Denmark expects this to already happen around 2029. See Figure 3.

There is a great will to be part of the transformation in the transport industry, where many companies, transport buyers and hauliers have set ambitious climate targets. At the same time, lorry driving is a profession where many lorries travel very far each year. Therefore, operating costs will be significantly lower with driving an electric truck compared to a diesel truck, where diesel prices are significantly higher and are set to rise. At the same time, electric trucks are estimated to be more competitive and cheaper than both diesel, gas, biogas and hydrogen.

As the transport industry is a rational market, the transition is expected to take place significantly faster for trucks than, for example, the switch of private drivers to electric cars – especially the lorries that drive long distances and internationally. As also appears from KF23, the change from e.g. diesel to electric trucks to happen when the total total cost of purchasing a truck is positive. Green Transition Denmark expects the same to happen. And with the inclusion of new and relevant prerequisites, as mentioned in the previous section, new sales as well as the stock of electric trucks will grow significantly faster than projected in KF23.

Overall, we are looking into a rapid green transition to electric trucks. It will not come by itself, but in Denmark we have very good prerequisites for being one of the countries in the world that will phase out fossil trucks the fastest and can help show the way for others.

Green Transition Denmark is an independent non-profit environmental organization that has advised on the green transformation for more than three decades. Like a green solution tank we will deliver concrete, realizable and ambitious solutions that can accelerate the transition to an absolutely sustainable society.